I love many of the ideas behind the semantic web even if I think most of the tools and products targeting the space are not polished enough, or useable enough or quite ready for prime time.
But one meme that drives me crazy is the idea that when we get to the semantic web, it will think for us. Some even have taken to calling it the "thinking" web. The problem with this kind of talk is that it sets expectations *way* too high.
Certainly the semantic web will be smarter than Web 2.0. But we must be careful about our language and our expectations. I wrote the other day about the future of the web being about serendipity, and I think this is important. Serendipity implies a situation where you are unexpectedly happy to find some useful information or connection. But when you start talking about a web that "thinks" you are talking about a web that you *expect* to able to give you useful and correct answers.
It is really all about expectations, and designing user interfaces, and developing messaging that under promises and over delivers. Because doing the reverse is fatal.
Unfortunately I fear there are people talking about a "thinking" web because they want more attention, and what better way to get it than evoking some HAL like future. But this kind of talk that gets expectations way out of wack with what is actually possible, and really hurts the process. And the truth is there are perhaps more pedestrian sounding, and yet incredibly useful benefits to the underlying ideas of the semantic web. The semantic web world doesn't need to blow smoke up people's butts to be impressive. In fact such smoke blowing either does, or will soon come to sound overblown and desperate.
5 comments:
Hank, I can't agree with you more. Why people have the idea that the semantic web will "think" is beyond me. We still need the whole "linked data" thing to get acceptance before anything interesting can happen. I do have a feeling that even if some level of the semantic web gains acceptance, the disappointment of not living up to the ridiculous hype will kill the idea.
It definitely won't 'think' for us. I imagine it as a data store that's more structured and therefore usable at 'higher levels' meaning instead of the usual Google search crap shoot you will have more control as far as what you tell a search engine you're looking for, etc. Also it will be more automatable, meaning perhaps somebody's HAL 9000 esque AI could use it the way a thinking person might. But that won't mean the semantic web is thinking.
... who am I to disagree, but ... There is this nasty notorious link between exaggeration and success, and it is a spiritual force. You won‘t fight it with paternal sanity. One: We love to belief in our wishes, because they are pumping up our energies beyond daily mediocrity. Two: Imagination is, as music is sometimes, a source of an indepth happiness. Where we are today, that means, is only the starting point, of where we could be - the day after tomorrow.
Having that said, I think, that a public admonishment will not meet the right areas in our minds. It is so easy to say „Yes!“, and stay foolish in your decisions. It is so easy to join the common sense. On the other hand, being realistic, though, is something that might boil down your motivation. „I won‘t succeed, anyway.“
There is a striking need for highflying targets. They push. Realism is a dark force that sucks! So - I think, MY real smart position should be: staying bullish and enthusiastic on possibillities, maybe pushing expectations (targets) to high - but when it comes to MY expectations, I shall go MY extra mile when aiming for the achievable.
Its all about hype. The so called (and sometimes self called) "web gurus" sometimes release some stupid theories where they can see the future they way they see fit and some of their followers take care of spreading the word. Usually this is all about hype, about uneducated opinions and, well, bullsh*t talk. The internet is so prolific about that, its actually one of the nice things about the internet, we can all talk air out of our mouths if we want.
The semantic web: i am tired of reading about what it will/should/they would like it to be. All the hyped theories about the thinkinb web like you mentioned, about how awesome some applications for it will be, but they all fall/and will fall short of their expectations.
Like you mentioned, some tools arent ready for prime time, which obviously doesnt mean they shouldnt be in their place, as it all helps the process of web evolution, but i honestly feel that this evolution is mostly about promises - "our final version of this search tool will do this and that and bring you coffee, BUT not yet..", "this is a small demo of what our website will be, introducing this revolutionary web semantic goodness super power tool that will build web sites for you".
I wouldnt want the web to think for me, i want to have at my disposal as much information as i can, organized and with tools that make my life easier, and "serendipit..er", like you very well put on a previous post. Semantic, super charged, thinking, intelligent, all hype for now.
For people who cant shape the present, all that reamins is to bloat about the future. The future they can only wish for, even though they dont exactly work for it. So, instead of blahbing endlessly about how bright our web future will be, how about a new concept...start working for it.
Hank, I completely agree with the serendipity-as-value-prop of the next web (however we want to call it, Web 3.0, semantic, graph, etc.). In fact if you read this recently successful (in raising $3.4 MM early stage/pre-money) company site (www.semantinet.com), you will see that this is their positioning. So, with a simple arithmetic (briefly explained in my post, http://www.web3beat.com/2008/09/stories-of-success-semantinet.html):
success = > $2MM in early stage = serendipity-type value prop AND NOT "thinking" web type value prop
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