Back then I refuted the then common wisdom that the spill would cost 2 or 3 billion dollars. I said I thought such estimates were "ridiculous" and that I though the damages were going to be in the tens of billions and that, "I think the damages that come from this have the potential to mortally wound BP."
Finally, everyone has caught up to the obvious. BP's share price has fallen by 50% since the crisis and I don't think its done falling by a longshot. That BP is in a fight for survival has gone from a fringe viewpoint to conventional wisdom.
From today's New York Times:
The ultimate cost of the disaster remains uncertain. Wall Street estimates have put the bill for BP at anywhere from $17 billion to $60 billion, including penalties, damages and cleanup costs for the Deepwater Horizon disaster.
And then later in the same article.
“The costs are going to be significant, yes, and potentially they are an existential threat to BP,” said Bruce Bullock, director of the Maguire Energy Institute at Southern Methodist University.
This is the kind of stuff I'd rather be wrong about.